- Poll rank before
- #67
- Rating before
- 1494.52
- Opponent rating
- 1523.53
- Expected margin
- -4.36
- Actual margin
- +5.00
- vs expectation
- +9.36
- Rating change
- +7.78
- Poll rank after
- #65
North Carolina Tar Heels
As ofWeek 6
Rank#56
Rating1520.69
Vs preseason+26.17
2026 weekly history
Rank and rating after each published week. New rows appear automatically as weekly snapshots are published.
| Preseason | 67 | 0.00 | — | |
| Week 1 | 65 | +7.78 | +7.78 | |
| Week 2 | 68 | +3.88 | -3.90 | |
| Week 3 | 69 | +3.31 | -0.57 | |
| Week 4 | 68 | +3.31 | 0.00 | |
| Week 5 | 62 | +13.02 | +9.71 | |
| Week 6 | 56 | +26.17 | +13.15 |
Why this preseason rating?
Every team starts at 1500 (national average), then gains or loses points from four measurable categories. See how the formula works →
1500.00
-23.76
+23.00
-7.46
+2.73
1494.52
Underlying data
Raw inputs from CFDB used to build the preseason rating. Each metric is standardized nationally before contributing to the score. Read the full methodology →
Prior strength (2025)
- 1320
- -6.7
- -6.6
Roster quality (2026)
- 767.89
- 247.7
Returning production
- 31.6%
Transfer portal
- 19 (avg 0.861)
- 27 (avg 0.863)
- -8.00
Game-by-game audit
Each completed game updates this team's rating using opponent strength, home-field advantage, and how the result compared to expectation. For every game below you can see the rating at kickoff, the opponent's rating, the model's expected margin, the actual scoreboard margin, the gap between those two, and the exact rating points gained or lost. Ratings and game-audit tables for each published week are linked above that week's results.
Week 1
Week 2
- Poll rank before
- #65
- Rating before
- 1502.30
- Opponent rating
- 1283.56
- Expected margin
- +36.69
- Actual margin
- +32.00
- vs expectation
- -4.69
- Rating change
- -3.90
- Poll rank after
- #68
Week 3
- Poll rank before
- #68
- Rating before
- 1498.40
- Opponent rating
- 1521.77
- Expected margin
- -7.30
- Actual margin
- -8.00
- vs expectation
- -0.70
- Rating change
- -0.58
- Poll rank after
- #69
Week 5
- Poll rank before
- #70
- Rating before
- 1497.83
- Opponent rating
- 1673.86
- Expected margin
- -22.69
- Actual margin
- -11.00
- vs expectation
- +11.69
- Rating change
- +9.71
- Poll rank after
- #62
Week 6
- Poll rank before
- #61
- Rating before
- 1507.54
- Opponent rating
- 1560.96
- Expected margin
- -11.83
- Actual margin
- +4.00
- vs expectation
- +15.83
- Rating change
- +13.15
- Poll rank after
- #56